ITALIAN MARINE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION: 2024 INDUSTRY TREND FORECAST AND 2025 SENTIMENT SURVEY PRESENTED IN ROME

During its Annual Members Assembly on Thursday 12th December, the Italian Marine Industry Association presented its forecast analysis on the sector’s market trend carried out by the Association’s own Research Department, having processed the data collected through a survey conducted on a significant sample of member companies.

In 2023, the yachting sector closed with solid figures: the industry’s turnover reached an all-time high of €8.33 billion, which corresponds to an increase of exactly €1 billion compared to 2022. This 13.6% increase follows the already substantial 20% growth achieved in 2022.

One of the key factors fuelling this continued increase in turnover is the export of yachting units produced: in 2023, exports of yachts produced in Italy exceeded the €4 billion threshold, growing even further in the first four months of 2024 and reaching a peak of 4.23 billion.

The Italian yachting industry has clearly demonstrated a strong propensity with regards to foreign markets: with an export rate of 90%, Italian production of new yachting units continues to uphold its world leadership not only of the superyacht segment, representing more than half of all global orders, but of large inflatable units, components and equipment.

The number of employees is also on the rise, having reached 30,690 in 2023, a significant increase of approximately 7%.

Growth in the yachting sector is predicted to normalise in 2024, with the diversification of market dynamics between high-end products and small boats expected to become more distinct. Within this context, the outlook for the Italian yachting industry remains positive overall, despite complex external economic scenarios, due in no small amount to the substantial contribution of the superyacht segment.

These estimates are further confirmed by the results of the market trends questionnaire drawn up by the Italian Marine Industry Association’s Research Department, outlining a differentiated situation for the boatbuilding industry.

Specifically, 75% of the sample representing the superyacht segment predicts a positive year-on-year closure while the remaining 25% are expecting stability. The current order book’s performance highlights the normalisation of growth rates, with about two thirds of the companies involved in the survey indicating a limited order book reduction (contained between -5% and -10%) with the remainder of the sample split between a stable outlook and growth within a range of +5%.

Analysing boatbuilding production up to 24 metres (segments 2, 3 and 4), the picture that emerges, as predicted in recent months, appears to be somewhat more complex: the variety of target markets and product types leads to a more heterogeneous outcome: estimates for 2024 see a contraction in turnover for 60% of the sample, with negative figures ranging from 5% to over 30%, stability for 18% of respondents, and growth for 22%. The trend for 2025, on the other hand, appears to be more positive: while the share of companies forecasting growth remains at 22%, only a third of companies expect a drop in turnover, increasing stable predictions to 45% of the sample.

The companies in the marine engine sector report a distinctly varied close to 2024, with an equal distribution of recorded growth (between +5% and +20%), stability and contraction (between -5% and -20%) in terms of turnover compared to the previous year: the type of product and end use (superyacht yards, small boat companies, end users) has determined a clear distinction in sales results. On the other hand, estimates for 2025 are somewhat encouraging, due to the anticipation effects of trends tied to the boatbuilding industry: within the sample, one third of respondents expect to see an increase in turnover while two thirds predict figures to stabilise in line with 2024.

With regards to the equipment and equipment segment, the distribution of respondents is fairly even for 2024, with 39% of the sample expecting growth and 42% predicting a contraction in turnover: As is the case for marine engines, the end use of the products sold determines a net distinction in turnover trend dynamics. Companies’ forecasts for 2025 point to an improving picture but they remain cautious in their estimates: almost two thirds of the sample (63%) indicate they predict a period of stability, 23% foresee a contraction, and 14% are expecting an improvement compared to 2024.

Finally, an analysis of the data gathered from nautical tourism businesses (sectors 7 and 9) describes a particularly satisfactory 2024 season, with 63% of the sample indicating a growth in turnover, 28% a stability, and only 9% a reduction compared to the previous year. Estimates for 2025 also look promising: more than half of the respondents (55%) expect their turnover to continue its positive trend, 39% predict the current situation will stabilise, and only 6% foresee a possible contraction.

In summary, as we await the official final figures – which will be presented in the new edition of La Nautica in Cifre LOG, the “Yachting in Figures LOG” statistical report book to be presented at the 65th Genoa International Boat Show – the picture illustrated so far suggests that the year 2024 could potentially close with the substantial stabilising of the yachting industry’s overall turnover. As a matter of fact, the positive results achieved by superyacht yards, thanks to the considerable weight the segment has in terms of business volume compared to the sector as a whole, offset the undoubtedly critical situation experienced during this recent season by small boat companies. The predictions emerging from the same individual segments for 2025 appear to be encouraging, allowing for the possibility of a reversal of the current downward market trends in smaller segments as of spring next year.